The Money Flow Journal

The Money Flow Journal – Issue #1 – May 11 2026

Markets · Macro · Crypto · Big Players · Your Edge

Issue #1
Mon, May 11 2026
IRAN DEAL DEAD · OIL +3.7%

01 · Market Snapshot — Spot · Fri May 8 close / Mon pre-mkt

INDICES — Fri close

S&P 500

7,399

+0.8% · 6th win wk

Nasdaq

26,247

+1.7% · ATH

Dow Jones

49,609

+0.02%

VIX

17.19

↑ Iran risk

FOREX

EUR/USD 1.1769 Near 1.18	GBP/USD 1.3520 Holding	USD/JPY 145.30 Yen surge	DXY 97.45 Below 200-SMA
AUD/USD 0.6490 Trade def.	USD/CHF 0.8810 CHF haven	USD/CAD 1.3940 Oil watch	US 10-yr 4.42% Rising

CRYPTO

Bitcoin

$81,500

$79K held

Ethereum

$2,390

Slight dip

Fear & Greed

Neutral ↓

BTC Dom.

58.6%

Cap $2.63T

COMMODITIES

XAUUSD ✦

$4,695

Iran dead→watch

Silver

$35.20

Industrial bid

WTI Oil ⚠

$98.50

+3.7% Iran

Brent

$103.20

+3.5%

Gold ATH: $5,597 (Jan 29) · Nasdaq wk: +4.5% · S&P wk: +2.3% — sixth straight winning week

02 · Economic Calendar — US · EU · GB · JP · CN

Today done
CN MED

China CPI + PPI April — released overnight
PPI pushed higher (~+1.7% YoY) by Iran war energy costs. Relevant for AUD/USD and commodity pairs.

10:00 AM ET
16:00 CET US MED

US Existing Home Sales — April
Modest market impact. Housing resilience check amid elevated mortgage rates from Fed hold policy.

TOMORROW ⭐ — US CPI April
Tue May 12 · 8:30 AM ET / 14:30 CET

CRITICAL

Consensus

+3.2% YoY

+2.8% YoY

Core CPI

+3.1% est.

MoM

+0.3% est.

First post-tariff CPI. Hot print (>3.5%) = USD bounce, gold/crypto sell, equities drop. Cool print (<3.1%) = DXY extends breakdown, gold breaks $4,800+, equities rally. Size positions accordingly before 14:30 CET tomorrow.

Wed May 13
8:30 AM ET
14:30 CET US MED

US PPI April
Producer price inflation — upstream pipeline feeding future CPI. Energy component key given Iran war disruptions.

Thu May 14
8:30 AM ET
14:30 CET US MED

US Retail Sales April + Jobless Claims
Consumer spending check. Did oil above $100 dampen April retail activity? Claims consensus ~215K.

Fri May 15 🔑 — Powell's last day · Warsh takes over
Jerome Powell's Fed Chair term ends. Kevin Warsh (known hawk) becomes chair. His first FOMC: June 17. + UMich Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET / 16:00 CET

03 · Macro & Geopolitical

Trump rejects Iran's counter-proposal — "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" ESCALATION
Iran relayed its formal response via Pakistan over the weekend. Trump rejected it emphatically, calling it "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Peace deal optimism that drove last week's oil collapse and equity rally is over. Oil surging +3.7% to $98.50. Safe-haven flows returning to gold, yen, and CHF. Risk-off across energy-linked assets.

NFP recap: +115K beat consensus, but wages told a different story MIXED
April added +115K jobs vs 62K consensus. Healthcare +37K, Transport +30K, Retail +22K. But wages were the dovish reveal — AHE +0.2% MoM and +3.6% YoY, both below the +0.3%/+3.8% expected. Employment resilient enough to avoid recession fear, but wages cooling enough to prevent Fed hiking. Explains EUR/USD at 1.1769. CPI tomorrow confirms or challenges this narrative.

Dell +14% after Trump calls it a 'buy' on $6.25B family investment AI THEME
Trump posted on Truth Social calling Dell a 'buy', following disclosure of a $6.25B family investment. Dell's AI server division is a major data-centre buildout beneficiary. Stock surged 14% in Asian trading.

Kevin Warsh confirmation — final week before takeover FED RISK
Powell expires Friday. CME: 70% hold, 17% hike (Warsh premium), 13% cut through 2026. Weak NFP wages pushed cut expectations higher. CPI tomorrow significantly reprices this table.

04 · Under the Surface

OIL SURGE WTI $98.50 (+3.7%) — inflation risk returns
Peace deal oil rally (oil fell to $91) fully reversing. WTI back at $98.50, Brent near $103. Energy-driven inflation risk re-introduced ahead of tomorrow's CPI — making the print even more pivotal. Airlines and cruise lines reversing last week's 7–8% gains.

OPTIONS SPX max pain at 7,200 — $2.3T+ expires May 16
Market at 7,399 — 199 points above max pain. Dealer gamma hedging creates downward gravitational pull all week as expiry approaches. Expect sharp intraday reversals unconnected to news flow.

MEMORY Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) +30% last week — AI inference supercycle
Memory chips are the hottest AI sub-sector. Micron and SanDisk surged Friday. AI inference requires massive memory bandwidth. Applied Materials (Thu) and TSMC are direct capex beneficiaries.

WGC Q1 2026 gold demand hit all-time record
Total Q1 demand +2% YoY to 1,230.9 tonnes. Bar and coin demand +42% — second-highest quarterly figure ever. Asian investors drove accumulation. Structural institutional demand provides a floor under gold.

05 · Forex Focus FOREX TRADERS

EUR/USD — Approaching 1.18 after biggest USD move of 2026
EUR/USD at 1.1769. Driven by Friday's wages miss (3.6% vs 3.8%) crushing "Fed must hike" narrative — DXY below 200-day SMA. CPI tomorrow is the decisive event: hot print reverses the entire move; cool print sends EUR/USD to 1.18+ and potentially 1.20. Resistance: 1.1800, 1.2000. Support: 1.1600, 1.1400.

USD/JPY — Yen surge accelerating, 145 in view as safe-haven flows return
USD/JPY moved from 154.80 to 145.30 — yen benefiting from Iran safe-haven demand and BoJ rate-hike expectations simultaneously. Yen carry trade actively unwinding. Watch for BoJ intervention commentary near 143.00.

XAUUSD — Iran deal dead + weak wages = two simultaneous bullish catalysts
Gold at $4,695. Trump rejecting Iran proposal revives oil/inflation risk (bullish gold) while NFP wages miss reduces Fed hike probability (lower real yields, bullish gold). 50-day EMA at ~$4,753 is the near-term target. CPI is the wild card.

Session note — London open volatile on Iran news. USD/JPY and gold most active. Quiet US session today (only Existing Home Sales 16:00 CET). Big event tomorrow: CPI 14:30 CET. Keep sizing small today.

06 · Crypto Pulse

BTC dipped to $79,800 on Friday then rebounded — $79K support confirmed
Bitcoin touched $79,800 intraday — the first clean test of critical $79K support. The bounce was immediate and strong, recovering to $81,500 by Monday. Two tests of $79K = stronger floor. The $86K thesis is intact. 200-day EMA at $82,228 is the next resistance.

NFP wages miss = dovish Fed = rate cut expectations rise = BTC tailwind
Crypto is sensitive to real interest rate expectations. Weak wages reduce the probability of hikes and increase eventual cut odds — lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding BTC. Compounds over weeks if CPI confirms the trend tomorrow.

Clarity Act — White House targeting July 4 passage still on track
Senate co-sponsorship growing. Formal commodity classification for most tokens. Less than 55 days away — the single most structurally important event for US crypto markets in 2026.

Iran escalation — BTC showing resilience vs expectations
When Iran news broke Monday morning, gold and yen spiked while BTC held relatively steady at $81,500. Institutional adoption and ETF inflow momentum is creating a structural floor that mutes risk-off selloffs compared to Q1.

07 · Stock Market View EARNINGS + NEWS

S&P 500 and Nasdaq at fresh records — sixth consecutive winning week
S&P 7,399 (+0.8%), Nasdaq 26,247 (+1.7%) on Friday. Nasdaq week: +4.5%, S&P: +2.3%. NFP beat sparked the afternoon rally, AI enthusiasm via Micron and SanDisk added fuel. Monday pre-market slightly negative as Iran deal collapse revives energy inflation risk. Airlines and cruise lines reversing Friday gains. CPI Tuesday and options expiry May 16 are the week's key risk events.

EARNINGS CALENDAR THIS WEEK

Company	When	NY (ET)	CET
Simon Property Group (SPG)	Mon May 11 · Before open	~7:30 AM	~13:30
Constellation Energy (CEG)	Mon May 11 · Before open	~8:00 AM	~14:00
Mosaic (MOS)	Mon May 11 · After close	~4:30 PM	~22:30
Tue May 12 — US CPI day, limited earnings of note
On Holding (ONON)	Tue May 12 · Before open	~7:00 AM	~13:00
Cisco Systems (CSCO) ⭐	Wed May 13 · After close	4:30 PM	22:30
Applied Materials (AMAT) ⭐	Thu May 14 · After close	4:30 PM	22:30

NY = EDT (UTC−4) · CET = CEST (UTC+2) · NY + 6 hrs = CET · ⭐ High-impact: AI networking (Cisco) + semiconductor capex (AMAT)

08 · What Are Big Players Doing?

BTC ETFs — Fri May 8
BlackRock IBIT	+est. $120M
9-day streak	$2.7B total
Total AUM	~$102B

ETH ETFs — Weekly
BlackRock ETHA	−$71.45M
Net weekly	−$82M
YTD total	−$410M+

FED/CB — Powell's final week. CME: 70% hold, 17% hike (Warsh premium), 13% cut. Weak NFP wages pushed cut expectations higher. CPI tomorrow significantly reprices these odds.

COT FOREX — Large spec USD longs continuing to unwind after ADP and NFP wages miss. EUR/USD at 1.1769 confirms speculative short EUR covering is well advanced. Commercial hedgers (importers/exporters) added EUR and JPY longs as tariff hedges.

GOLD WGC — World Gold Council Q1 2026: global gold demand hit all-time record at 1,230.9 tonnes. Bar and coin demand +42% — second-highest quarterly figure ever. Asian investors drove accumulation. UBP rebuilt gold to 6% of discretionary portfolios from 3% trough.

09 · Main Charts XAUUSD · DXY · BTC · NAS100

XAUUSD — Gold
50-EMA test as Iran deal collapses — bullish case building

Now: $4,695
50-EMA: $4,753
Target: $4,850 → $5,000

Structure: ATH $5,597 (Jan 29) → Iran war crash → 200-EMA hold at $4,350 → higher lows building since April ceasefire → 50-EMA test last week. This is the first meaningful confirmation the rebuild is real.

Dual catalysts today: (1) Trump rejects Iran deal → oil +3.7% → inflation expectations rise → gold bid. (2) NFP wages miss (+3.6% vs +3.8%) → dovish Fed → lower real yields → gold bid. Both independent catalysts pointing in the same direction simultaneously.

Levels: Support: $4,500, $4,350 (200-EMA — bull/bear line). Resistance: $4,753 (50-EMA, first target), $4,850, $5,000, $5,597 (ATH). JPMorgan year-end: $5,000. Wells Fargo: $6,000.

CPI wildcard: Hot print (>3.5%) → gold retreats to $4,550. Cool print confirms goldilocks environment (inflation fears + no rate hike) → accelerates move through 50-EMA. Bias: Bullish. Reduce risk before 14:30 CET tomorrow.

DXY — US Dollar Index
Below 200-day SMA — structural USD breakdown in progress

Now: 97.45
200-SMA: 97.80
Triple-btm: 97.69 (broken)

Structure: DXY broke below its 200-day SMA and the triple-bottom support at $97.69 on Friday after NFP wages missed. EUR/USD at 1.1769, USD/JPY at 145.30, and GBP/USD at 1.3520 all confirm broad USD weakness. Dollar is at pre-Iran-war lows, having fully reversed the conflict-driven safe-haven premium built since February.

What drove the breakdown: ADP miss (May 7: 109K vs 165K) + NFP wages below expectations + EUR/USD technical breakout created a USD-selling feedback loop. Markets pricing higher probability of H2 2026 Fed rate cuts than at any point since before the Iran war.

The Warsh complication: Incoming Fed Chair Warsh is a hawk. Markets caught between dollar-bearish macro (soft wages, possible cuts) and dollar-bullish institutional factor (hawkish new chair). DXY may not fall as cleanly as the chart suggests — any Warsh signal before June 17 could spark a sharp reversal.

Levels: Resistance: 97.69–97.80 (previous triple-bottom, now resistance), 98.50, 99.00. Support: 97.00, 96.00. Bias: Bearish, but CPI tomorrow is the pivot. Hot print = DXY bounces sharply.

BTC/USD — Bitcoin
$79K support confirmed — structure intact for $86K

Now: $81,500
200-EMA: $82,228
Support: $79,000

The $79K support test: BTC dipped to $79,800 intraday Friday — first clean test of the critical $79K zone. The bounce was immediate and decisive, recovering to $81,500 by Monday. Two successful tests of $79K = stronger floor, not weaker. Institutional accumulation at this level is confirmed.

Structure intact: Descending trendline broken ~3 weeks ago. Higher lows above $79K building since. 200-EMA at $82,228 is next resistance. Confirmed daily close above = technical signal for $86K measured move target (also aligns with pre-Iran-war consolidation high).

Fundamental alignment: NFP wages miss → dovish Fed → lower real rates → BTC bullish. Plus: 9-day ETF inflow streak (institutional accumulation), approaching Clarity Act, declining mining difficulty (less miner selling pressure).

Levels: Support: $79,000 (critical floor). Resistance: $82,228 (200-EMA), $83,500, $86,000 (target). Invalidation: daily close below $78,500. Bias: Bullish while above $79K. CPI is the week's key risk.

NAS100 — Nasdaq 100
ATH territory but CPI + options expiry create headwinds

Close: 26,247
6-week win streak
+4.5% last week

Six consecutive winning weeks: Nasdaq +4.5% last week — best week of 2026. Drivers: AI earnings (AMD +18%, Fortinet +15%, Corning +18%), memory chip supercycle (DRAM ETF +30%), and dovish NFP wages interpretation. Index at all-time highs.

Monday headwinds: Iran deal collapse revives oil/energy inflation. Higher inflation expectations raise discount rates and compress high-P/E growth stock valuations. Airlines and consumer stocks selling off in pre-market; tech is relatively insulated but not immune. CPI tomorrow is the week's pivotal event for NAS100 — tech valuations are most sensitive to rate expectations.

Cisco (Wed) and AMAT (Thu): Cisco's AI networking revenue tests if capex supercycle is broadening beyond chips into network equipment. AMAT confirms or challenges semiconductor equipment demand. Both could meaningfully move the Nasdaq mid-week regardless of CPI.

Levels: Support: 25,500–25,600 (prior resistance, now support), 25,000. Resistance: ATH 26,247, then 27,000. SPX max pain at 7,200 creates gravitational pull toward lower levels into May 16 expiry. Bias: Neutral to cautious — AI structural theme intact but CPI + options expiry create downside risk.

10 · Quote of the Day

"In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine."

— Benjamin Graham

In a week with CPI, a Fed chair transition, options expiry, and Iran war — the voting machine will be noisy. The weighing machine says: AI capex is real, earnings are strong, and the structural bull case is intact. Keep your time horizon in mind when Tuesday's CPI moves everything 1–2% in either direction.

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The Money Flow Journal Issue #1 · Monday, May 11, 2026 [email protected] · t.me/Ortinius · MQL5 Market	Unsubscribe {{PHYSICAL_ADDRESS}}
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice. The Money Flow Journal may receive affiliate compensation from brokers and services mentioned. All editorial content is independently produced. © 2026 The Money Flow Journal.