TheMoneyFlowJournal

ISM Manufacturing May: 54 — beat. New orders 56.8. But prices still at 82.1 STRONG DATA
ISM Manufacturing hit 54 in May — beating the 53.2 consensus and rising from April. New orders surged to 56.8 (+2.7 points) — the forward demand signal. Employment index also rose but at 48.6 remains below the expansion/contraction 50 line. The key caveat: prices paid fell 2.5 points but remain at 82.1 — still deeply in inflationary territory. Strong manufacturing + elevated input prices = "good news and bad news for the Fed" dynamic. Rate hike odds ticked slightly higher to ~27%.

Trump: "I don't care if Iran talks are over" — peace deal risk surges IRAN SHOCK
On Monday, Trump told CNBC: "I don't care if they're over, honestly. I really don't care." when asked about the Iran peace talks potentially collapsing. Oil climbed back to $92.50. After three weeks of "peace deal incoming" optimism that drove oil from $111 to $88.50, Trump's dismissive statement puts the entire Iran discount at risk. If Trump resumes military pressure and the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues into Q3, the oil/inflation/rate-hike nightmare scenario returns. Markets held up on tech strength (ISM beat + Nvidia Computex) but this is the most bearish single statement since the war began for the Iran peace trade.

Nvidia N1X AI PC chip unveiled at Computex — the PC market reinvention begins NVIDIA PC
Jensen Huang unveiled the N1X processor at Computex Taiwan — Nvidia's first AI-focused PC chip, developed in partnership with Microsoft. Dell and Lenovo will manufacture PCs featuring N1X later this year. Huang called it "the reinvention of the computer." ARM Holdings, ServiceNow, and IBM surged premarket on the announcement. Separately, TSMC and Nvidia expanded their partnership: Nvidia AI will now automate TSMC's chip fabrication processes. Nvidia is no longer just a data-centre company — it's an AI infrastructure ecosystem spanning servers, PCs, and fab automation simultaneously.

S&P RSI hits 73 — overbought signal, but FEMO argues it's earnings-driven TECHNICALS
The S&P 500's RSI (Relative Strength Index) hit 73 Monday — above the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions and a potential pullback. June is historically the worst month for stocks in a mid-term election year. Wayve Capital's Williams: "The real bet is that we get an Iran resolution in the next 2-3 weeks. I really don't think we could be talking about the Strait being closed in October without a market reaction." Trump's "I don't care" comment is the first signal that the Iran resolution timeline may extend beyond that window.

BTC ETF OUTFLOWS  Record institutional BTC ETF outflows — divergence from market ATH
Bitcoin is holding $81,800 while the S&P is at ATH and Nasdaq above 27,000 — but record ETF outflows are the persistent headwind. Institutions are selling BTC ETFs even as they buy AI stocks. The SpaceX IPO portfolio rebalancing (June 12) is one driver. Iran uncertainty is another. The divergence between BTC and equities this week is the clearest signal that institutional capital is rotating from crypto to equities/AI, not adding across both. May NFP Friday is the macro catalyst that could restart inflows if it comes in soft (rate cut expectations return).

PANW TEST  Palo Alto Networks tonight = was Zscaler an isolated miss or a sector problem?
ZS crashed 31.52% on an enterprise security spending miss. PANW is the same sector. If PANW beats tonight, ZS was company-specific (perhaps competitive pressure from PANW itself). If PANW misses, enterprise IT security budgets are being cut across the board — a much more serious signal for any enterprise software company. The ZS/PANW pair will define whether enterprise cybersecurity is a buy-the-dip opportunity or a structural decline.

NVIDIA PC  N1X AI PC chip is a $300B+ addressable market that Nvidia didn't have last year
The global PC market is ~300M units per year. If Nvidia's N1X becomes the standard AI PC chip (like Intel's x86 was for 30 years), Nvidia's TAM expands by an order of magnitude beyond data centres. The Microsoft partnership for N1X mirrors the Intel/Microsoft "Wintel" relationship that dominated computing for decades. This is the highest-risk but potentially highest-reward new product in Nvidia's history.

AVGO PREVIEW  $10.7B AI chips expected in Q2 — hyperscaler ASIC spending at critical juncture
Broadcom's consensus is $10.7B in AI semiconductor revenue for Q2 — nearly half of its total $22B expected revenue. This is custom ASIC (Google TPU, Meta's MTIA, Apple's own AI chips). After Dell confirmed $16.1B in AI server sales (+757%), if Broadcom confirms the $10.7B AI chip run-rate, the hyperscalers are spending at both layers simultaneously: Dell's server layer AND Broadcom's custom silicon layer. The AI capex supercycle has no visible ceiling.

DXY at 97.90 — ISM beat + Trump Iran "I don't care" = partial USD recovery. Still below 98
DXY bounced from 97.50 to 97.90 as the strong ISM (54) added a hawkish tinge and Trump's Iran comments pushed oil back to $92.50. The 98.00 Waller floor that was definitively broken last week is being retested. If the Iran peace narrative collapses (Trump follows through on "don't care"), oil spikes back toward $100 and DXY breaks back above 98.00 → 98.50–99.00. If Iran talks quietly continue despite Trump's rhetoric, DXY holds below 98. This week: ADP Wed (14:15 CET) and NFP Fri (14:30 CET) are the dominant catalysts.

EUR/USD at 1.1600 — slipping on DXY recovery and Iran risk. JOLTS 16:00 CET today
EUR/USD fell from 1.1640 to 1.1600 on the DXY partial recovery. The pair has failed to break above 1.1650 despite the broader trend being EUR-bullish (lower oil = less inflation = less Fed pressure). Trump's Iran "I don't care" is EUR-negative short-term (oil rises → USD bid). JOLTS at 16:00 CET gives the first labour market signal before NFP. A weak JOLTS (below 7.0M openings) = labour market cooling = USD softer = EUR/USD bounces.

XAUUSD at $4,450 — 200-EMA at $4,380 is now only $70 away
Gold at $4,450 is now $70 above the 200-EMA at $4,380. Oil recovering to $92.50 (Iran stalling) provides a tiny war-premium bid, partially offsetting the structural decline from $4,608 (two weeks ago). The Trump "I don't care" comment is ambiguous for gold: if it leads to resumed military pressure and oil spikes, gold benefits from both inflation fears and safe-haven demand. The 200-EMA must hold. AVGO Wednesday + NFP Friday are the next major catalysts for the yield direction that drives gold.

BTC at $81,800 — record ETF outflows vs above-200-EMA structure. Divergence warning
BTC holds above the 200-EMA ($82,228) but is being pressured lower by record ETF outflows. The divergence: S&P 500 ATH, Nasdaq 27,300, but BTC ETF selling. Institutional capital is choosing AI equities over BTC this week — the SpaceX IPO ($1.75T, June 12) is creating the largest single equity rebalancing event in years and some of that capital is coming from crypto. NFP Friday is the macro catalyst that could end the ETF outflow streak: a weak NFP → rate cut expectations return → DXY falls → institutional BTC re-entry begins.

Clarity Act — 35 days to July 4. Senate floor vote schedule this week
Senate leadership is expected to confirm the June floor vote schedule this week. With 35 days to the July 4 target, the Senate needs to schedule a floor vote before the end of June to meet the July 4 deadline. Any floor vote confirmation announcement this week would be a strong positive catalyst for BTC regardless of the ETF outflow headwind. CME Volatility Futures (launched Monday) are providing the first institutional vol hedging infrastructure — laying groundwork for the next institutional wave.

Iran "I don't care" — BTC weekend gap risk returns
Trump's dismissal of Iran talks on Monday reintroduces the military escalation risk that had been largely priced out. If Trump resumes strikes or threatens expanded military action, oil spikes, stocks sell off, and BTC could fall $5–10K in a single weekend session (24/7 trading). Manage weekend BTC exposure accordingly — especially heading into the June 7–8 weekend with SpaceX roadshow underway and no clear Iran resolution timeline.

Nvidia's Computex keynote revealed three simultaneous market expansions
Jensen Huang's Monday Computex keynote expanded Nvidia's market beyond data centres into three new vectors: (1) N1X AI PC chip (300M unit/year PC market), (2) TSMC fab automation (Nvidia AI running chip manufacturing), (3) RTX Spark desktop AI chip (gaming/prosumer). ARM, HPE, ServiceNow, IBM all surged on the announcements. Nvidia is no longer a single-product GPU company — it's an AI operating system for hardware at every level of the computing stack.

FOMC MEMBERS SPEAKING THIS WEEK — Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak this week (Investing.com). Warsh himself remains silent, but any hawkish Fed governor commentary (especially in light of ISM 54 and oil back at $92.50) could push rate hike odds back above 30% before NFP Friday. Watch for any scheduled Warsh pre-FOMC communication — his first public speech will be the most watched Fed event of 2026.

TRUMP IRAN RISK — "I don't care if they're over" is not just rhetoric — Trump has previously followed through on military threats within 24–72 hours of dismissive statements. The market's Iran peace premium (rate hike odds at 26%, DXY at 97.50, oil at $88.50) was built over two weeks. A single Trump military action announcement could reverse all of that in minutes. This is now the dominant tail risk for all markets.

SPACEX REBALANCING — SpaceX roadshow begins Thursday June 4. Institutional portfolio managers are actively rebalancing now — the $1.75T allocation requires selling existing positions. The BTC ETF outflows may partly reflect this rebalancing rather than a fundamental bearish view on crypto. Post-June 12 listing, the rebalancing pressure ends and ETF inflows could resume. Monitor this effect across AI mega-caps and BTC through next week.