TheMoneyFlowJournal

Trump delayed Iran military action — oil fell to $110, but no deal DELAY NOT DEAL
On Tuesday Trump delayed planned military action against Iran. Brent fell from $111 to $110.12 (−1.8%), WTI to $103.81 (−0.4%). Markets briefly attempted a relief rally before resuming the decline on yield and inflation concerns. This is a pause, not a resolution — the White House simultaneously rejected parts of Iran's latest peace framework. Iran insists its conditions (reparations, Strait sovereignty, sanctions lifting) are non-negotiable. The structural oil supply disruption continues. Any military action resumption would send Brent back to $115–$120.

Nasdaq −1.43% Tuesday — chips sold into Nvidia eve SELL THE RUMOUR
"Sell the rumour, buy the news" is playing out in real time. Chip stocks fell 1.43% on Nasdaq on the day before an expected 120% EPS / 80% revenue Nvidia beat. The selling reflects: elevated valuations after weeks of AI rally, DXY breaking 100 (headwind for non-US revenue), and yield fear making high-PE tech structurally expensive. Goldman Sachs, Amazon, and Caterpillar dragged the Dow. The market is not celebrating the AI bull case — it's managing risk ahead of the confirming data point. This is not bearish — it's rational position management.

Home Depot Q1: Revenue $41.8B (+4.8%), comps +0.6%, guidance reaffirmed CONSUMER READ
HD beat on EPS ($3.43 vs $3.41) and revenue ($41.8B vs $41.5B estimate). Comparable US sales +0.4%. Small DIY projects described as a "real source of strength." Full-year guidance reaffirmed — management is not panicking despite UMich record low. The key detail: Pro contractor comps held up better than DIY, confirming homeowners are staying put and renovating rather than buying. This is a mild positive for housing complex stocks heading into Lowe's today and further housing data.

S&P equal-weight continues to lag significantly — breadth still broken WARNING
The S&P 500 cap-weight is down from its 7,449 ATH but up 12% for 2026. The equal-weight version is essentially flat for the year. The divergence has never been wider — a handful of AI names are carrying an index where most stocks are struggling under inflation, high yields, and consumer weakness. If Nvidia misses tonight, the AI premium unwinds and the equal-weight finally converges with the cap-weight — but downward, not upward.

BTC $79K BROKEN  First $79K breach in five weeks — the structural floor is being tested
Bitcoin fell through $79,000 for the first time since the floor was established five weeks ago. The breach happened despite the institutional ETF bid that had previously defended this level. The proximate catalyst: DXY above 100, 10-yr at year high (4.55%), chip stock selloff reducing risk appetite across all speculative assets. The critical question: is this a fake-out break that produces a sharp reversal on Nvidia's beat tonight, or is $79K now broken resistance that becomes support? The $76,000–$77,000 zone is the next meaningful support below the break.

CEREBRAS RISK  Nvidia faces new direct competition — Cerebras hit $100B valuation
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) surged 68% on its Nasdaq debut last Thursday, briefly approaching a $100B valuation with just $500M in 2025 revenue. Cerebras makes a competing AI chip architecture that processes AI workloads without the memory bottlenecks that affect Nvidia GPUs for certain tasks. While Nvidia's dominance is not immediately threatened, institutional investors are noting that the AI chip competition narrative is building. Any Nvidia commentary on competitive pressure tonight will be closely watched.

BLACKWELL RAMP  The specific number that makes tonight's result: 150K–200K additional GPUs QoQ
KeyBanc's specific Blackwell forecast — 150,000 to 200,000 additional GPU shipments quarter-over-quarter — is the swing factor in tonight's result. At $30,000+ per unit, this range represents $4.5B–$6B in incremental revenue from Blackwell alone. If Nvidia confirms or exceeds this ramp, the 80% revenue growth consensus looks conservative. If the ramp is slower (supply constraints, export restrictions), the beat may be softer than expected even with strong data-centre demand.

UK GILT  Global bond selloff deepening — UK 30-yr at late-1990s levels
The global yield spike is not just a US story. UK 30-yr Gilts are at levels last seen in the late 1990s. Japanese long bond yields surging. This synchronized global bond selloff reflects worldwide inflation repricing from the Iran war energy shock. It means DXY strength has a structural ceiling — EUR and GBP bond yields are also rising, providing some offset to the USD yield premium. But for now, US 4.55% 10-yr vs European 2.5%–3.5% keeps DXY supported.

Tonight is the biggest binary forex event of the week — two events in 2.5 hours
FOMC Minutes at 20:00 CET (hawkish = DXY up, EUR/USD down), then Nvidia at 22:30 CET (beat = risk-on = DXY partially reverses, EUR/USD recovers; miss = risk-off = DXY extends to 101). These two events in 150 minutes create the highest volatility window of the week. Go flat or near-flat before 20:00 CET. The second move after each event (30–60 min after) is more reliable than the initial spike. EUR/USD can easily move 150–200 pips overnight.

USD/JPY at 150.80 — BoJ verbal intervention remains the wild card
USD/JPY has pushed through 150 and is at 150.80. The Japanese Finance Ministry typically issues verbal warnings around 150 and has previously intervened near 152. Tonight's Nvidia result complicates the BoJ picture: a Nvidia beat = risk-on = USD/JPY likely pushes higher (less yen safe-haven demand) = potentially triggering BoJ action. A Nvidia miss = risk-off = yen strengthens anyway (safe-haven) = USD/JPY reverses regardless. Either way, USD/JPY is the most binary pair overnight. Wide stops essential.

EUR/USD at 1.1410 — approaching 1.1400 multi-week support
EUR/USD has fallen from 1.1769 (Friday May 8) to 1.1410 — a 359-pip reversal in 8 trading days. The pair is at 1.1400 support — below this opens 1.1250 (the level before the NFP rally began). The Nvidia print tonight is the key: miss = DXY to 101 = EUR/USD through 1.1400 toward 1.1250. Beat = partial DXY reversal = EUR/USD bounces to 1.1500–1.1550 in relief.

BTC at $76,500 — $79K support broken. Nvidia is the only recovery catalyst
The five-week $79,000 floor has been broken. Bitcoin fell through $79K on Tuesday as: DXY above 100 (strongest USD in months), chip stocks crashing 1.43%, risk appetite collapsing ahead of Nvidia's binary event. The $76,000–$77,000 zone is the next technical support — prior consolidation from late April. If Nvidia beats tonight (120% EPS / 80% revenue expected): risk-on → BTC bounces sharply back above $79K → the five-week floor is restored. If Nvidia misses: $79K becomes resistance → next support $73,000–$74,000. The Clarity Act legislative timeline (45 days to July 4) is the medium-term structural tailwind regardless.

The $79K break in context — institutional ETF bid must hold
Five weeks of defending $79K through every macro shock only to break on Nvidia eve raises a question: is the institutional ETF bid weakening? Watch today's ETF flow data carefully. If BlackRock's IBIT shows continued inflows despite the price break, the institutional floor thesis remains intact and the break is a temporary dip. If ETF flows turn negative for the first time in the streak, it signals the institutional conviction is fading — a more serious bearish signal.

Clarity Act — 45 days to July 4 · Senate floor vote building
The medium-term structural bull case for BTC remains unchanged: Senate floor vote before July 4, formal commodity classification, CME Volatility Futures launching June 1, Morgan Stanley ETF inflows. Short-term macro pain (DXY 100, yields at year high) cannot erase these structural developments. The regulatory tailwind is being built while the price consolidates. Patient holders are being rewarded by the regulatory timeline regardless of tonight's Nvidia print.

Market is selling chips INTO Nvidia's biggest expected beat — classic pre-event de-risking
Chip stocks fell 1.43% Nasdaq Tuesday — the hardest selling directly ahead of what analysts project to be a historic Nvidia beat (120% EPS / 80% revenue). This is institutionally rational: take gains, manage risk, re-enter on confirmed direction post-print. The S&P 500 is now 110 points below its 7,449 ATH. The Nasdaq is 803 points below its 26,521 high. Tonight's Nvidia print determines whether this is a healthy pre-earnings dip or the start of a more extended AI valuation correction.

FOMC MINUTES TONIGHT — Powell's April 28–29 meeting at 20:00 CET. With hike odds at 45%, markets will parse every word. Key phrase to watch: "participants discussed the possibility of removing accommodation" = hawkish. "Appropriate to hold" without further specification = neutral. Any dovish language would be a surprise positive for stocks. The minutes set the tone for the 22:30 CET Nvidia print context.

NVIDIA POSITIONING — Options market is pricing ±9% move for Nvidia. Open interest is heavily skewed toward call options above current price — institutional buyers are positioned for a significant beat, not hedging against a miss. This means: (1) a beat produces a sharp but capped upside as calls are monetised; (2) a miss produces a violent, uncapped downside as the call premium evaporates and put hedges are triggered. Risk is asymmetric tonight — downside worse than upside.

TRUMP / PORTFOLIO — Trump disclosed large Nvidia purchases in his May 14 financial filing. With Nvidia reporting tonight, this disclosure creates a political/media dynamic. Any pre-print White House commentary that could be construed as market-moving will attract scrutiny. Watch for any Truth Social posts regarding Nvidia or AI before 22:30 CET.