TheMoneyFlowJournal

AVGO: AI chips hit $10.8B (+143% YoY) — but "sell the news" on no guidance raise SELL THE NEWS
Broadcom delivered a record quarter: AI chips $10.8B (+143% YoY), EPS $2.44 (beat), net income $9.31B (+88% YoY). Revenue of $22.19B was a hair below the $22.27B consensus. Q3 AI chip guidance: $16B — a 48% sequential jump from Q2, representing +200% YoY. Full-year and FY2027 guidance reaffirmed ($56B and $100B+) but not raised. The stock fell 6% AH. CEO Hock Tan named 6 core customers — Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta and two more — with $6B in new AI orders. The disappointment: investors wanted raised guidance, not a reiteration. After Dell's +23% revenue beat, the bar was impossibly high.

Trump proposes tariffs on 60 economies — new macro headwind arrives TARIFFS
The Trump administration proposed sweeping new tariffs on 60 countries. This is a new and significant macro variable that did not exist last week. Tariffs on 60 economies means: higher import prices → more inflation → higher yields → more rate-hike pressure → USD strengthens → DXY bounces → risk assets (including BTC) under pressure. The OECD simultaneously slashed its global growth forecast. The Iran war + tariffs on 60 countries + aggressive Fed (Waller hawkish) = three simultaneous growth/inflation shocks converging at the same time.

Brent back above $98 — Iran stall and tariff energy premium OIL RISK
Brent crude climbed back above $98 as Iran ceasefire talks stalled and Trump's tariff announcement added a global energy demand risk premium. Oil recovering from $88.50 toward $100 reverses the "Iran peace trade" that drove rate hike odds from 45% to 26% two weeks ago. If Brent sustains above $100 through June 10 CPI, the May CPI print will be hotter than expected — feeding back into Warsh's June 17 FOMC decision.

Anthropic + OpenAI confirmed as Broadcom custom ASIC customers AI REVEAL
AVGO CEO Hock Tan named the company's 6 core AI chip customers on Wednesday's earnings call: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, and two unnamed others. This is the first public confirmation that Anthropic and OpenAI — the two leading AI frontier labs — are commissioning custom ASIC hardware for multi-gigawatt AI compute infrastructure. Anthropic's Claude Mythos and OpenAI's latest models run on Broadcom custom silicon. This validates the "inference infrastructure" story: the cost of running AI models at scale requires purpose-built chips, not just Nvidia GPUs.

$16B Q3  Broadcom guided AI chips to $16B in Q3 — sequential +48% from Q2's $10.8B
The Q3 AI chip guidance of $16B is actually extraordinary — a $5.2B sequential jump from Q2. Annualised, that puts FY2026 AI chip revenue well above the $56B guidance if Q4 follows Q3's momentum. The $56B reaffirmation looks conservative already. Hock Tan's FY2027 $100B reiteration + a Q4 that extrapolates from $16B Q3 = $100B in 2027 looks achievable, not aspirational. The market punished the "no raise" framing; the underlying data suggests the guidance may be too low.

NFP 95K  Consensus at 95K — the weakest NFP forecast since March 2020
Friday's NFP consensus of 95K is dramatically below April's +115K and represents one of the most pessimistic labour market forecasts since the early pandemic. If the actual print matches or beats 95K, rate hike odds hold at ~27%. If the print comes in above 130K (surprise strength), rate hike odds spike back above 40% — re-inflating all the bearish pressures on risk assets. If the print misses (below 70K), rate cut talks begin — DXY falls, BTC bounces, gold recovers. The 95K consensus means the bar for "beat" is very low this month.

ECB HIKE  ECB expected to raise rates June 11 — first since September 2023
The European Central Bank is widely expected to hike rates at its June 11 meeting — the same day SpaceX prices its IPO. This would be the ECB's first rate hike since September 2023. An ECB hike on SpaceX pricing day creates a double EUR-positive event: rate differentials narrow (ECB hike closes the ECB-Fed gap) and SpaceX hype generates general risk-on sentiment. Watch EUR/USD for a breakout above 1.17 on June 11.

JUNE 12  SpaceX listing + post-rebalancing catalyst = risk-on inflection date
June 12 SPCX Nasdaq listing ends the rebalancing selling pressure. Post-listing, fund managers who sold AI mega-caps and crypto to fund SPCX have completed their rotation. Combined with the SPCX hype on listing day creating fresh risk-on sentiment, June 12 is the inflection date where BTC and AI stocks could see a meaningful bounce. Watch for BTC ETF inflows to resume the week of June 12 as the SpaceX rebalancing mechanical headwind ends.

DXY at 98.00 — tariffs on 60 nations restored the Waller floor. NFP Friday decides
Trump's tariff announcement on 60 economies pushed DXY back to 98.00 — the hawkish floor that looked broken last week. Three forces now support the USD: (1) oil back above $98 Brent = inflation persistent; (2) tariffs on 60 nations = more import inflation; (3) Waller hawkish. The Iran peace trade (DXY to 97.50, EUR/USD to 1.1640) is partially unwound. NFP Friday is the next directional catalyst: strong NFP → DXY to 99; weak NFP → DXY back to 97.00 as rate cut narrative builds.

EUR/USD at 1.1570 — ECB June 11 hike is the medium-term EUR catalyst
EUR/USD slipped to 1.1570 on the tariff USD bid and oil recovery. But the ECB hike expected June 11 is structurally EUR-positive — narrowing the ECB-Fed rate differential. If ECB hikes June 11 while NFP Friday is weak (95K or below), the EUR/USD recovery from 1.1400 lows could extend all the way to 1.1800–1.1900 by mid-June. Weak NFP + ECB hike = the most EUR-bullish setup of 2026 arriving in the next 7 days.

XAUUSD at $4,450 — war premium partially restored. 200-EMA ($4,380) still the danger
Gold is at $4,450 with Brent back above $98 partially restoring the energy inflation war premium. The tariff announcement also adds a trade-war inflation premium. But the 200-EMA at $4,380 is still only $70 away. NFP Friday is the key: weak → yields fall → real rates drop → gold recovers above $4,600. Strong → yields spike → gold tests $4,380 200-EMA. The transition from "war premium" to "real rates" driver is the right medium-term thesis, but the near-term path runs through NFP.

BTC at $67,000 — low $65,700 this week. Equity/crypto divergence at its widest
S&P 500 at a 9th consecutive record close. BTC at $67,000 — down 14% in May, RSI near 34. The divergence has never been wider in 2026: AI stocks hitting all-time highs daily while BTC approaches oversold territory. The causes: $2.3B in May ETF outflows (largest of 2026), SpaceX rebalancing selling, tariff/oil inflation reviving rate hike fears, and the structural bear of BTC being below all major EMAs. NFP Friday is the first catalyst that could close this divergence: a weak print (below 95K) → rate cut narrative returns → BTC catches up to equities.

SpaceX rebalancing selling ends June 12 — the mechanical headwind is temporary
The $75B SpaceX capital raise requires institutional managers to fund SPCX positions by selling existing holdings. Some of that selling is coming from BTC ETF redemptions. This mechanical pressure ends on June 12 when SPCX begins trading. Post-listing, the rebalancing is complete and the risk appetite generated by the SpaceX listing itself (a $1.75T company joining Nasdaq) could restart institutional risk-on flows including BTC. Date to watch: June 12 as the BTC inflection from mechanical selling headwind to neutral.

Clarity Act — 30 days to July 4. Senate scheduling critical this week
30 days until the July 4 Clarity Act deadline. Senate leadership must schedule a floor vote this week to allow time for debate and passage before the recess. A floor vote confirmation announcement this week = standalone BTC positive catalyst regardless of NFP/SpaceX dynamics. The CME Volatility Futures are already live (launched June 1) — the institutional infrastructure for the next wave of BTC allocation is being built while the price consolidates around $65K–$70K.

WARSH / FOMC PREVIEW — 13 days to Warsh's first FOMC. Three data points before June 17: NFP (Jun 5), CPI (Jun 9), PPI (Jun 11). Oil back above $98 + tariffs on 60 nations = inflation picture worsening. But 95K NFP consensus + ETF outflows = growth slowing. Warsh faces the classic Fed dilemma: raise on inflation or hold on growth. Rate hike odds at 27% suggest markets expect a hold. PPI June 11 (SpaceX pricing day) is the last data point before Warsh goes dark for the pre-FOMC quiet period.

SPACEX MECHANICS — Roadshow begins today. $75B raise at $1.75T valuation requires $75B in new equity purchases. That $75B has to come from somewhere — mostly from existing positions in AI mega-caps and risk assets. The $2.3B May BTC ETF outflows may be partly a preview of this $75B rebalancing. Post-June 12 listing, the mechanical rotation is complete. Watch for Nasdaq and BTC to find near-term support as the rebalancing pressure eases from next Thursday.

OECD GROWTH CUTS — The OECD slashed its global growth forecast amid Iran war energy shock, tariff escalation, and consumer strain. This is the second major multilateral growth downgrade of 2026 (IMF first). Slower global growth + persistent inflation = stagflation scenario for the world economy. US-specific: Q1 GDP revised to +1.6%, Q2 GDPNow +4.3% — still positive but the trend in global growth is downward. Tariffs on 60 nations could shave another 0.3–0.5% off global GDP forecasts.